Archive for April, 2008

Should You Buy A Home In Today’s Atlanta Real Estate Market?

Posted by Doug Quance on April 30th, 2008

Home Purchases Today Are Not For Everyone

In a conversation with a young couple the other day, they asked me whether or not they should purchase a home - in spite of all this talk about falling values and foreclosures in the news.

"Every agent tells us that now is the time to buy," the wife exclaimed, "Who do you believe?"

I don’t have a crystal ball, nor am I a prophet. I can’t tell you what the market will be doing in a few years… but I can tell you what I believe is true.

If you are not buying for the long term - stay out of the market unless you are a very experienced buyer. If you are either buying a primary residence or a new property to use as a rental - then I would encourage you to find the best value and go for it. But if you are thinking of buying and selling withing the next few years - you need to lose that thought, immediately.

I would recommend that you consider a purchase only if you feel confident that you will hold the property for at least FIVE years.

Home ownership carries many benefits - which I won’t go into in this post - but many of those benefits can be stripped away if you sell before you have acquired equity through appreciation.

By only purchasing for the long term - you are much more likely to enjoy the full benefits that home ownership can bring. It’s like the stock market - buying stocks while the market is down is fine, as long as you are a long-term stockholder.

I know that many of my fellow Atlanta agents will disagree…

Ask The Broker - Why Didn’t My Short Sale Work Out?

Posted by Doug Quance on April 24th, 2008

Your Offer Might Be Good - But It Might Not Be Workable

I got a call yesterday from a Buyer whose offer was rejected by the lender or asset manager. She read my post regarding short sales, and she wanted to know why her deal didn’t go through.

Here is my speculation I offered to her:

Short sales are often killed when there is more than one lien holder on the title… as is the case with second mortgages. What happens is that a good, legitimate offer does not allow the second lien holder to get anything out of the deal.

Let’s take a house that was bought a few years ago for $100K with no money down. The first mortgage was for $80K; the second mortgage was for $20K. You want to buy the property for $80K (which is the fair market value) and the first lien holder may accept this offer.

The trouble is that the second lien holder wants something, too. And your offer doesn’t include anything for them.

Are you going to pay more than the property is worth to make the deal work? Of course not! Is the second lien holder going to offer to remove the lien with no compensation? Of course not!

And therein lies the rub.

A few days ago, I was showing my clients a few select properties… and on one of the listings I wrote, "Won’t happen" on the paperwork. My client asked if we could go see it, since the price was so attractive.

I explained that it would be a waste of time, for the reasons above. The sale is conditonal on the bank’s approval - which we’ll never get, because of the second lien holder.

What do you do under these circumstances?

Go find another property. Properties like these will have to go through foreclosure before the sale will make sense. The second lien holder will be wiped off the title - and the first lien holder will eventually put the property on the market.

Short sales can be accomplished - though they can be slow and annoying. Keep in mind that you’ll have far less frustration in the process if you don’t use an inexperienced agent to assist you.

 

Patience Is THE Virtue When Buying Short Sale Properties

A short sale occurs when a lender allows the sale of a property for less than is owed - and the sale takes place prior to the foreclosure. While this might sound enticing to a buyer - short sales are difficult transactions that more often than not result in a lot of wasted time with no gain.

Most lenders use asset managers to handle their short sales - who often must get the "go ahead" from secondary market owners before the sale can proceed… and if the loan has private mortgage insurance, that adds another layer of bureaucracy.

It is not uncommon to get a verbal approval within a week of presenting an offer… but no written acceptance for sometimes several weeks. I have heard of instances where this verbal approval did not result in a written agreement, as a better offer came in - and the lender accepted it, instead.

There is no shame in the game, right now.

Since next month will be a record month for the number of foreclosed properties in the greater Atlanta area, lenders will have to take all serious offers into consideration, as their non-performing inventory stacks up.

In the past, lenders would often reject perfectly sensible offers in the hopes of waiting and getting more after the foreclosure. Well the times are a changin’, as the wave of foreclosures is crashing in on itself.

It won’t make sense to walk away from a reasonable deal, now.

As a buyer, the key here is to not make stupid offers. Educate yourself about value - then find a great value. They’re all around. And be patient. Newly listed foreclosures are often overpriced, too. Pay attention to the price reductions, as that will reveal a great deal about the motivation of the seller.

Atlanta Area Hits All-Time Record Number Of Foreclosures

Posted by Doug Quance on April 16th, 2008

Foreclosures Slated For May Top February’s Monster Record

Just when I thought we had seen the crest of the giant wave of foreclosures in the Atlanta area, I am yet again amazed at the whopping 7335 properties that are now slated for auction next month on the courthouse steps of the 13 counties in the greater metro area.

Back in January, Equity Depot reported the previous record of 6992 foreclosures that were slated for February auctions.

This continues a trend for buyers to be able to select some very good properties at bargain prices… and a mounting challenge for sellers of resale homes.

"How can I sell my house for that much… I owe that much!"  a prospective seller recently told me.

"The best thing you can do is wait for the market to improve… if you can,"  was my reply.

As with all properties - whether in a buyer’s or a seller’s market - the best value proposition involves one where you can add value to the property… which means the property needs updating, renovating, remodeling or restoration. At least some paint and carpet. The key is buying these properties right… and this wave of foreclosures will allow you to do just that.

The Senate has recently passed legislation designed to provide tax credits for individuals purchasing foreclosures… and the House is busy with legislation of their own. In this election year, you can be sure that something will be done… whether or not it will be good is another story.

Should you buy these properties to flip?

Absolutely not! This market will eat you alive if you try to flip houses. I see many listings that have been rehabbed nicely… but fail to sell quickly at good prices for the sellers. The demand is just not there right now.

The key strategy for this season is to acquire a property as either an owner-occupant or for rental. Remember - the rental market absorbs a huge share of those who left their homes because of foreclosure.

This opportunity is not only great for first-time homebuyers - but those who would like to move up into a bigger, nicer home. Your existing home may be a good candidate as a rental… which allows you to use a tenant to carry the cost of the existing property until the market improves and you sell for a much better price.

Current low interest rates make this proposition very attractive.

The Quick Links on the left will take you quickly to our list of distressed properties for each of the cities shown. Who knows? Maybe your next home is just a few clicks away! 

Do You Believe Your Atlanta Home Is Ripening On The Vine?

Posted by Doug Quance on April 10th, 2008

Some Believe Their Homes Age Much Better Than Fine Wine

Occasionally, I will venture out and tour the open houses of unrepresented sellers. I really find it to be quite educational - particularly in the study of human nature.

A few weeks ago, I viewed a few homes and had a conversation with one of the sellers that went something like this:

"You’ve only lived here for two years… why are you selling?" I asked.

"Because we won’t have to pay taxes on the profits," they replied.

"You bought this home - new - for $240K… what leads you to believe it will sell for your asking price of $320K?" I asked.

"Because we have all these nice upgrades," as they pointed out their list of upgrades on their flyer.

"Aren’t these builder upgrades?" I inquired.

"Well, yes, they are."

"Have you looked at the other comps in this neighborhood?" I asked.

"Well our house is much nicer than any of those houses," they replied, "and we spoke to a few agents who said our house was much nicer than those other houses."

These folks believe that their home has appreciated by a third… in only two years… in a depressed real estate market. That would be quite an accomplishment - even in the best of markets.

The truth is that most homes are NOT worth any more than they were two years ago. In fact, many of them are worth less.

Many foreclosures start out as overpriced listings, too.

As I peruse foreclosure listings, I often see homes that started out as overpriced listings - only to be later be given back to the bank. When I analyze the original asking price - then the price reductions - then the foreclosed price… I can only wonder "What were these people thinking?"

In many cases, these foreclosures could have been avoided by simply pricing the property aggressively enough in the beginning to get it sold. For some reason, many people believe that they are entitled to profit from the ownership of real estate.

Remember - profit is an admirable goal - but it’s not guaranteed.

Don’t fall victim to this kind of thinking.

Although I am working with a buyer who might like the property I mentioned above… I won’t be pursuing a sale, there. Not in a buyer’s market. Why? Because sellers like this are nothing but trouble - a lot of work that seldom nets any reward. With so many other properly priced properties on the market, why should I bother?

Another Beautiful Sunset In Georgia

Posted by Doug Quance on April 7th, 2008


04062008_042, originally uploaded by Doug Quance.

I drove up to Fairplay, South Carolina yesterday to visit a friend of mine who has a lake house on Lake Hartwell - a lake that borders South Carolina and Georgia.

The lake level has been rising as of late, so we took out her boat and headed out to enjoy the sunset on the lake.

I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

Cautiously Bullish On The Atlanta Real Estate Market

Posted by Doug Quance on April 1st, 2008

It’s Good To Be A Buyer - Not So Good To Be A Seller

With the government in full-court-press election mode, politicians are busy finding solutions to the housing market woes. Some of these ideas are good - others are not-so-good… but they still might provide the buoyancy to get the market back off its heels.

In general practice, I believe that market forces should be allowed to work - with the normal ebb and flow that free markets provide. Many of our current problems can be traced to outside intervention - though sometimes intervention is needed.

The move by the government to help JP Morgan buy Bear Stearns is an unprecedented one - and a noteworthy one, as well. We are ushering in a new era of governmental intervention. An era when no large entity can be allowed to fail.

This move has propped up the financial markets for the moment - and now the focus is on the housing market. New plans are being introduced in the effort to stabilize the rate of foreclosures, and while some of them are outright dumb - others are worthy of serious consideration.

This post isn’t about the details of these proposals, but rather as wake-up call to those of you who are looking for your point of time to get into the market.

As a buyer, this could be the right time to make your move.

There are many properties that you can buy for less than the cost of construction. Yes, you read that correctly. Below cost. Foreclosures of recently built homes give you the opportunity to purchase at below the builder’s actual cost - while overpriced resales sit idly with little or no interest paid to them.

Now take those low prices and add low mortgage interest rates into the mix with a strengthening in the rental market… and you might have all the ingredients needed to acquire rental properties with positive cash flow. That’s where the smart money is going right now.

These foreclosures are my canary in a coalmine, as when the demand increases for foreclosures - the market is starting to rebound. Some recent sales and near misses are giving me the impression that we might be witnessing such a firming in this market segment.

You now have an easy way to track each area of Atlanta.

On the right hand side of our web site, you will see our Area Median Price Trends. In the areas where the median prices are falling, there is a corresponding number of foreclosures in that particular area. You can easily find these listings by clicking on an area link in our Quick Links on the left hand site of our web site. Once in a particular area, click on the link for distressed properties to view the current distressed and foreclosed homes for that particular area.

In areas where there are few foreclosures - or those foreclosures are being absorbed quickly - the median prices are rising. Consequently, where foreclosures are stacking up - you see a continued decline in the median prices for that area.

This is a simplification of the market - but one that will give you an idea of when you should be sure to make your move. It’s very hard to call the bottom of any market, so any tools to assist us in identifying where the bottom might be are welcome.

No, it’s not over - yet. But we might be witnessing the bottom. 

And this is no April fool’s joke.